Neil Patrick Harris hosting, great presenters like Michael J. Fox, Tina Fey, Jon Hamm, Justin Timberlake, Kevin Bacon and Kyra Sedgwick (presenting together), Ricky Gervais and Kiefer Sutherland … this year’s Emmy telecast (Sunday, 8PM ET, CBS) has the potential to be the best one in recent years. Too bad networks like AMC and HBO decided to go ahead and roll out new episodes of Mad Men and Curb Your Enthusiasm on the same night. Program those DVRs now …

In the meantime, here are my picks for who should and will – not always the same, certainly – take home Emmy statues Sunday night:

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
30 Rock
Entourage
Family Guy
Flight of the Conchords
How I Met Your Mother
The Office
Weeds

Should win: Of those nominees? 30 Rock, for sure. Would have been nice to see Chuck and It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia get well-deserved nods, but alas …
Will win: 30 Rock.

LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Steve Carell, The Office
Jemaine Clement, The Flight of the Conchords
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Tony Shaloub, Monk
Charlie Sheen, Two and a Half Men

Should win: Who doesn’t love Jim Parsons, a first-time nominee for Big Bang Theory? Still, Alec Baldwin’s 30 Rock role is the role he’s always been meant to play, and he’s just so fantastic in it, that I have to give it to him.
Will win: Baldwin. Clement and Parsons would also be cool, but if any of the other three win – Shaloub, again(?!?!) … Sheen: He’s just playing himself … Carell: It was not the best season for The Office – it’s really just more proof that a big number of Emmy voters don’t actually watch much TV.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
Christina Applegate, Samantha Who?
Toni Collette, United States of Tara
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures of Old Christine
Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds
Sarah Silverman, The Sarah Silverman Program

Should win: Tina Fey. She’s the funniest chick on TV, hands down.
Will win: Fey. Because I’m certainly not the only one who thinks so.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Kevin Dillon, Entourage
Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
Jack McBrayer, 30 Rock
Tracy Morgan, 30 Rock
Rainn Wilson, The Office

Should win: Jack McBrayer! The biggest, most welcome surprise of the nominations announcements was his nod, and after Tina Fey and Alec Baldwin, his performance as naïve, TV-lovin’ Kenneth the Page is the best part of 30 Rock. Tracy Morgan, as well, would be a deserving winner, and, of course, you can never go wrong with NPH for anything.
Will win: Harris. And as much as I’d like to see McBrayer win, there would be something extra cool about seeing NPH accept the award while he’s also hosting the show. As for the others … Cryer: meh. Dillon: Has deserved it in the past. Wilson: He’s not even the best supporting actor on The Office anymore; Ed Helms should have gotten that spot.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
Kristin Chenoweth, Pushing Daisies
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Elizabeth Perkins, Weeds
Amy Poehler, Saturday Night Live
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Vanessa Williams, Ugly Betty

Should win: Perkins. She’s been hilarious since About Last Night, and she continues to steal every scene she’s in as the deliciously bee-otchy, plotting, sometimes deranged Celia on Weeds.
Will win: Wiig. It felt like she was the only performer on SNL in some episodes last season.

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
Big Love
Breaking Bad
Damages
Dexter
House
Lost
Mad Men

Should win: Sons of Anarchy should have gotten a nomination (as should 24), and I would have put In Treatment on the list above House, at the least. Those oversights aside, Breaking Bad and Mad Men would both be fine winners, though a true surprise, albeit completely deserving one, would be Big Love, whose third season was far and away the show’s best.
Will win: Mad Men. Don’t think the Emmy folks are looking to go out on a limb, and a repeat win by Mad Men is the safest bet.

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
Simon Baker, The Mentalist
Gabriel Byrne, In Treatment
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Hugh Laurie, House

Should win: No nod for Kiefer Sutherland? Pffft. So okay, it should be Bryan Cranston. His is a tough role, and it’s still a great surprise to see the man who was Tim Whatley and Malcolm’s dad Hal pull off such an amazing performance in such an intense drama.
Will win: Hamm. Not that he doesn’t deserve it – he does – but it just feels like this is the year that Emmy wants to reward Mad Men across the board.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
Glenn Close, Damages
Sally Field, Brothers & Sisters
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
Holly Hunter, Saving Grace
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Kyra Segdwick, The Closer

Should win: Katey Sagal, Sons of Anarchy‘s motorcycle mama, who isn’t even nominated, in one of the biggest oversights amongst this year’s nominations.
Will win: Moss. Mad Men is a great show, hers was a great performance (the scene where she finally tells Pete about the baby, alone, earned her a nod), and again, I think the Emmy folks will take any excuse they can get to give the series another award.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
Christian Clemenson, Boston Legal
Michael Emerson, Lost
William Hurt, Damages
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
William Shatner, Boston Legal
John Slattery, Mad Men

Should win: Aaron Paul. It’s no small feat to stand out alongside Bryan Cranston’s incredible Breaking Bad act, but Paul, who does double duty in cable dramas with his role on Big Love, hangs with Cranston scene-for-scene. Oh, but, by the way: Carlos Bernard totally should have gotten a nod for bringing Tony Almeda back from the dead on 24.
Will win: I think Paul has a good shot. If not him, it’ll be Slattery, who also is fantastic in the role of his career. Just please, please, please, Emmy folk, no more Emmys for the Boston Legal gang. It’s good that Shatner finally got a statue (two, actually, for playing Denny Crane on BL and The Practice), but that show was over-the-top unwatchable well before ABC booted it, so let’s just allow it to ride off into the TV land sunset, hmmm?

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
Rose Byrne, Damages
Hope Davis, In Treatment
Cherry Jones, 24
Sandra Oh, Grey’s Anatomy
Dianne Wiest, In Treatment
Chandra Wilson, Grey’s Anatomy

Should win: Elizabeth Mitchell, who wasn’t even nominated as Lost‘s Juliet, unfortunately. Of those who were nominated, Jones was terrific as the first female POTUS on 24.
Will win: Oh or Wilson, as the Emmy voters apparently have not yet recognized that the entire GA line-up is packed with TV’s most self-involved, whiny, annoying characters.

Now let’s hear hear your predictions … anybody think, for example, that there’s any way 30 Rock won’t take home another Outstanding Comedy Series statue?